Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52275.065027 55423.217104 58579.700506 61979.399441 65534.983223 69141.209104 73072.715241
2024-10-20 46826.586199 51594.673236 56519.230617 61977.082204 67848.227322 73965.652560 80813.147186
2024-10-27 42812.197695 48638.539923 54798.700333 61779.947586 69454.515706 77616.649558 86935.938247
2024-11-03 40539.409374 47236.702074 54455.289533 62785.757682 72104.836703 82179.293201 93863.763018
2024-11-10 38557.579431 45941.320819 54035.325340 63524.608431 74301.144471 86115.340358 100001.327539
2024-11-17 36659.909494 44581.270995 53399.217641 63885.752986 75956.884824 89356.348345 105292.459816
2024-11-24 34781.831487 43115.452150 52526.619945 63867.726687 77086.193932 91927.732143 109769.506285
2024-12-01 33300.556059 42018.715048 51995.665824 64165.416791 78511.680679 94787.047252 114542.885874
2024-12-08 31823.587379 40844.773624 51300.270154 64201.654127 79574.376887 97184.590380 118755.141862
2024-12-15 30964.698563 40361.580192 51378.184343 65113.678142 81638.095982 100732.201436 124308.838585
2024-12-22 29610.288524 39210.462875 50597.646629 64945.092920 82373.398266 102687.536606 127972.511444
2024-12-29 28983.429385 38922.430312 50834.068991 65981.809932 84538.864438 106333.164803 133650.240763
2025-01-05 28089.940762 38279.611301 50623.999846 66473.394991 86060.639610 109244.739057 138512.019166
2025-01-12 27033.804570 37391.326368 50076.323023 66520.748508 87021.890788 111476.639583 142567.404783
2025-01-19 25930.945731 36399.758521 49360.201572 66322.308826 87651.381294 113287.564597 146106.239872
2025-01-26 25479.151824 36228.840000 49662.362461 67388.809169 89844.541565 117011.152458 151994.951881
2025-02-02 24931.119773 35907.296424 49752.286605 68171.026272 91674.588371 120291.279101 157356.141625
2025-02-09 24242.452971 35372.466275 49544.395669 68553.209392 92987.825026 122928.843999 161933.064806
2025-02-16 23422.502576 34632.403105 49043.489770 68534.156266 93773.705841 124900.367175 165683.934500
2025-02-23 22784.427290 34114.985146 48813.663216 68849.101592 94974.143170 127386.744620 170084.212372
2025-03-02 22068.030615 33465.777062 48387.516179 68887.438571 95804.119810 129399.748793 173893.460444
2025-03-09 21751.458332 33355.569020 48669.363077 69852.207822 97833.274641 132938.899623 179647.765250
2025-03-16 21011.464864 32631.036215 48104.539733 69673.884315 98358.566404 134556.530504 182968.071423